The Osirak Raid

In 1981, Israel bombed Saddam Hussein's nuclear bomb facility in Osirak. This story in the Jerusalem Post tells the tale of just how dangerous it was, and how close to failure they walked. They then contrast it with what it would take to damage Iran's nuclear bomb making facilities. I find the tale of Osirak more interesting.

Israel's legendary destruction of Osirak - a near-impossible operation, pushing the F-16s further than they had been built to fly, evading enemy radar for hundreds of miles, to precision bomb a heavily protected nuclear target - has entered the pantheon of acts of extraordinary Zionist daring as a clinical example of pre-emptive devastation, executed with breathtaking, ruthless accuracy.

But, things did not go quite that smoothly

But as detailed in American journalist Rodger Claire's overlooked study of the mission, 2004's Raid on the Sun - in which he spoke, uniquely, to all the pilots, their commanders, and key players on the Iraqi side of the raid as well - the bombing of Osirak was far from error-free. It was an astonishing, envelope-pushing assault all right. It succeeded, utterly, in destroying Saddam's nuclear program - a blow from which he would never recover. It safeguarded Israel from the Iraqi dictator's genocidal ambitions. But Raz's mistake on the final approach was only one of several foul-ups that could so easily have doomed it.

Here is one of my favorite parts.

Potential disaster also struck when, as the eight F-16s violated Jordan's airspace en route to their target, flying low to evade radar, they were spotted by King Hussein, out sailing his royal yacht at Aqaba. The king phoned his defense headquarters in Amman to report the sighting of what, despite the camouflage paint, were all-too evidently Israeli F-16s streaking eastward on a bombing run. He was assured that his security apparatus had picked up nothing suspicious. If the king tried to alert the Iraqis, he evidently failed to do so.

And, the Iraqi's did not help their cause.

And over the target zone itself, the operation was immeasurably eased by the fact that not only had the Iraqi anti-aircraft artillery units taken a break for their evening meal just prior to the raid - as the Mossad had established they would - but they had also, inexplicably, shut down their radar systems. These systems were still only warming up when the Israeli pilots bombed the reactor; the Iraqi defense teams thus had no radar or computer guidance as they tried to fire back and the Israelis - right through to the last, most endangered of the pilots, Ilan Ramon - were able to bomb and escape the scene. The only people hit by the panicked defensive fire, indeed, were Iraqi soldiers on the far side of the Osirak complex, several of whom were killed in the chaos.

Can they do it to the Iranian's? Possibly - technology has come a long way since 1981, and with GPS I don't think they will be getting lost. The F-16 is still not a very stealthy plane, but the Israelis fly them well. However, I do not think that the Iranians will be as lax with their security as the Iraqis were.  I guess we'll see what happens.

Found on Powerline.

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Is the Surge a Success?

The jihadists seem to think so. Ace points the way to a fascinating look at the attitude and morale on the other side of the war. It's not a pretty picture for them.

A prolific jihadist sympathizer has posted an ‘explosive’ study on one of the main jihadist websites in which he laments the dire situation that the mujaheddin find themselves in Iraq by citing the steep drop in the number of insurgent operations conducted by the various jihadist groups, most notably Al-Qaeda’s 94 percent decline in operational ability over the last 12 months when only a year and half ago Al-Qaeda accounted for 60 percent of all jihadist activity!

The chart on the Talisman Gate blog says it all.  Their operational capacity has been severely reduced since the start of the surge.  They have been run out of one stronghold after another, culminating with Maliki personally overseeing the current front against AQI in Mosul.  A front he had to leave in order to meet with Rep. Pelosi in Baghdad.  The good thing is that even Pelosi is finally succombing to the overwhelming evidence and acknowledging that the surge is working - something that even the jihadists have understood for some time now.

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Outsourcing and insourcing

Now China has decided to build its own jumbo jets. 

Alone this would be no big deal, but it is indicative of a trend that is worrying many about our military capabilities.  Essentially, we are getting to a point where a war with the wrong country would substantially impact our ability to even wage war.  The glaring example of this right now is the sourcing of the Air Force's new tankers to EADS, which is the European consortium that owns Airbus, instead of contracting a US company (Boeing) to do it.  But when you think about all the electronics and chips and cables and even clothing that comes from China and ends up in critical military gear, the problem is even worse.  Some experts worry about back doors being hardwired in these chips, but what if we can't even get them anyway?  Spare parts become impossible to find, and new equipment is out of the question. 

When you base your warfighting around communication and high technology as we do, that supply line has to be safe - from the raw materials all the way to the soldier in the field.  Due to globalization in the defense industry, we are rapidly approaching the place that the proper operation of the links in that chain can not be assured, while China is doing the exact opposite.

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USS Monitor

Shorpy is a photo blog that specializes in very old pictures, from the start of photography through the early 20th century.  Today they have a classic picture of the USS Monitor, after its battle with the CSS Virginia.

You can clearly see the scars of battle on the turrett, especially just to the left of the empty gun port.  During battle, the turret was rotated by steam power, so the two guns could always be brought to bear on the enemy.  Also notice the thickness of the armor on the turrett, best seen in the empty gun port.  The technology did not exist to cast a single iron plate of that thickness, so overlapping plates were used.  Forward of the turrett (farther away in the picture), you can see the sloping sides of the pilot house.  The captain was stuck in this tiny, armored space so that he could see out and drive the ship.  It had to be mighty lonely up there with guns firing at you.  In the distance past the pilot house is a typical sailing ship of the day.  Above the turrett is a shaded area. The awning would be taken down and stowed prior to battle.  You can also get a feel for how low in the water the monitors set.  They only had about a foot of freeboard (distance from the waterline to the deck).  This proved the Monitor's undoing, as it sank in rough waters off the Eastern coast.

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Two looks at Iraq

Michael Totten and Michael Yon have some of the best looks at what is happening on the ground in Iraq.  These two risk their lives to bring us stories that otherwise would not be told.  They have both been to Iraq multiple times, and have seen the incredible changes made possible by the surge.  Here are their latest articles, both well worth the time it takes read them.

Michael Totten:  In the Villages of Al-Anbar

Michael Yon:  Guitar Heroes

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OK - Let's see if this works...

So the government has decided to shoot down a dead spy satellite with an SM-3 missile.  I gotta say this is pretty cool.  Of course, the official story is that we don't want the hydrazine gas that it uses as propulsion to take someone out when it crashes on earth.  Anyone who thinks about it for two seconds will recognize the incredible propaganda opportunity that has fallen into the government's lap (pun intended).

The SM-3 has been tested several times for the role of theatre ballistic defense.  It is carried by Aegis outfitted ships such as the Ticonderoga and Arleigh Burke class.  Interestingly enough, it is also used by foreign navies including Japan.

All the tests, of course, have been under controlled circumstances.  Now, we have a chance to prove that it works in less than ideal situations.  This is about as close as we can get to running an actual interception without a rogue nation launching on us.  And that is most likely what all this is about - or at least if that isn't what it's all about it's certainly a nice fringe benefit.

The successful interception will hopefully make players like North Korea think twice about doing anything crazy.  The proven ability to intercept a missile may actually provide a deterrence, especially as long as they have limited inventories.

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Emergency response and nuclear attacks

I heard some discussion on the radio today about the military's response to a nuclear attack on the continental U. S.  The assessment seemed to be that we are not ready for a catastrophe on the nuclear scale.  Which, to me, is not surprising.

I spent 5 years in the Navy, over 3 years of that on a nuclear submarine.  I know that handling nuclear, radioactive, and contaminated materials is not a simple matter.  You can not simply roll in to the scene of a nuclear catastrophe and expect to respond as you would normally do.  Everything must be handled differently in order to ensure the safety of the responders and to limit the spread of contamination.  The consequences of this was seen in the response at Chernobyl, where many of the casualties were first responders.

There are people available who would be better suited to work in this environment.  Typically, first responders in areas around nuclear power plants and Navy bases where nuclear ships are docked are better trained in dealing with these matters.  When I lived and worked in Groton, we routinely did exercises responding to a nuclear accident on a submarine at the base. 

Also, and perhaps more interesting, there are a lot of ex-nuclear Navy types like me who are around and would be more adept at working in those situations.  Maybe something like pairing up ex-nukes with first responders would help them do their job while the nuke makes sure that it is done in a way that will not result in their harm.  Of course, getting them all on some kind of emergency response list would be herculean task, but I'm sure that they would be ready and willing to help out should something of the magnitude of a nuclear attack happen.

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I Can't Even Imagine...

What it took to operate on this guy.  What an incredible testimony to the doctors and soldiers who responsible for rescuing him.  Having been in the Navy, and having a doctor for a dad and a brother, I can tell you that those in the military and those who are physicians are in a class by themselves.  The juxtaposition of the two on the battlefield has to take a person of unbelievable character.

Found on the Ace of Spades HQ.

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Fair Winds and Following Seas

The USS Augusta (SSN 710), was my home in the Navy for 40 months from 1997 to 2000.  Now she is being decommissioned as it would be too expensive to refuel her nuclear core.  The alumni are putting together a big shindig in October, but I will not be able to attend. 
more...

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