The nightmare scenario

So, what happens when the next president is not selected by the Electoral College?  This may be a relevant question if a third party candidate can actually win a state or two.  Is this possible?  Maybe -  Nader has thrown his hat into the ring, and although Bloomberg has said he is not running, some people think that he may just be biding his time.  The problem is if that third party picks up enough votes to prevent a candidate from getting the 270  needed to become the president-elect.

If that happens, the House of Representatives goes into emergency session to choose the next president.  But, it is not a straight vote - each state votes as a block.  The candidate needs a majority, 26 states, to win.  If a state's representatives split evenly on the vote, then the state is thrown out.  If you  take the current Congress and assume that each representative is going to vote for his/her party's candidate, then it would fall out like this: 26 Democrat, 21 Republican and 3 ties.  So, the Democrat candidate would win.  But, of course, it is not that simple.  A shift of only one or two states could move some states from the D to the R column, or representatives voting in line with their state's general election results could change things.  In that case, the House would be deadlocked, and the job would fall to the Vice-President Elect, who is chosen by the Senate.

In the Senate, the Vice-President elect has to get 51 votes, and the current VP can not vote.  Right now, with Lieberman caucusing with the Democrats, that would be enough to elect the Democrat Vice-Presidential candidate.  If he chooses not to, then the Senate is deadlocked as well, and the job then goes to the Speaker of the House.

That's right - President Pelosi.

Sweet dreams...

Posted by: jcallery at 09:37 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Unintended Consequences in Florida

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, McCain has a commanding lead over Obama in Florida.  It is more than his lead over Clinton, which is reversed from about every other state.  It sounds like the difficulty over Florida's delegates is having unintended consequences for the Democrats.  Obama's opposition to seating Florida is depressing his numbers, and the question is whether or not that would carry over to the general election.  It also raises the question about whether or not Florida Democrats will be enthusiastic in their support of either candidate if their delegates are not seated after all. 

It will be interesting to see if Florida gets a place at the convention, and if they don't, how it affects turnout in the state.  Needless to say, as a state that has been a battleground state in the past two elections, this could have a significant effect on the race.

via Hotair.

Posted by: jcallery at 08:04 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Anybody but Hillary?

Well, Barack Obama won his sixth, seventh and eighth primaries in a row last night, and he won them in landslides.  He certainly seems to have the momentum, and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon.  I just have to wonder, is there a segment of those voters who are supporting him just to block Hillary?  Her negatives have always been a problem - at times over 50% of the population have said they would not vote for her.  Now, those that are Democrats have someone else to vote for with a realistic chance of stopping her.

If that is the case, it may be a bright spot for the Republican candidate.  Once (if) Hillary is stopped that voter bloc will no longer be in play.  And given the high turnout in the Democrat primaries and caucuses, that would be a good thing for the Republican candidate should those people decide it is too much trouble to vote in November.

Posted by: jcallery at 06:58 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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Did talk radio force Romney's hand?

Today, Mitt Romney gracefully bowed out of the Republican primary race at CPAC.  After reading some of his speech I have to wonder, did talk radio force his hand?  Romney says in part,

I wonder if he is more worried about what others may do in his name, rather than what he may do in the race.  There has been a lot of vitriol from a lot of prominent people for McCain, and if that got dragged out then no Republican would stand a chance come November.  By exiting now, those people can come to grips with a McCain candidacy, and even if they are not pro-McCain, they can at least stop being anti-McCain.  Romney has removed their reason for the attacks by bowing out of the race, and he has put the good of the party before his own quest for the presidency, giving it a chance to heal while the Democrats continue battling.

Posted by: jcallery at 08:17 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Some thoughts on the Republican Primary

Well, by this time the voting in 'Tsunami Tuesday' states is wrapping up, and we'll soon find out who the real front runner is for the Republican nomination.  While I was listening to Bill Lumaye on WPTF during the ride home, a thought came to mind.

First let's set the scene.  Bill was talking politics, and Rick Martinez jumped in with some words for the conservative side of the big tent.  Basically, he thinks conservatives need to grow up and quit being 'cry babies' about McCain's candidacy.  I think most of this stems from Ann Coulter's statements that if McCain gets the nomination she's voting for Hillary.  Plus, a lot of talk show hosts have recently started talking up Romney as the next great conservative while bashing McCain, like Rush, Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Hugh Hewitt (but he's always been a Romney guy).  Rick seems to think that there's too much whining going on, and not enough action.

I don't necessarily agree with this.  I think that what we are seeing is a sudden coalescing of the conservatives behind the right most of the remaining candidates.  Before Florida, there were still a lot of conservative options, like Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo.  Since Florida, they have all gone away.  That leaves Romney.  Remember that Florida was only a week ago in this accelerated primary season, so I don't think it's unusual that they have come out for Romney, and come out forcefully.  And coming out in the way they know best and the way they can have the most impact.  They had to if they were going to make any impact on 'Tsunami Tuesday'.  Also, the complaints against McCain have always been there, they were simply overcome by a lot of other talk about a lot of other candidates.

So, are conservatives a bunch of cry babies?  I don't think so.  Ann Coulter probably went too far, but she made her point.  If the nomination is still up for grabs when the primary comes to North Carolina, you better believe I will be there making my voice heard.  And so will a lot of other conservatives.

Posted by: jcallery at 08:10 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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Do Republicans really think this way?

Within this article Powerline discusses the tendency of Republicans to nominate the heir apparent, or 'next in line' as our presidential nominee.  Is this really how people think?  We're only talking about the most important job in this country, and the person who will be, for all intents and purposes, the most powerful person on earth.  Leading America should not be a case of 'next-in-line', it should be a case of who can do the job best.  Personally, I am more interested in electing the person who has the best credentials and lines up the closest with my beliefs, not the guy who thinks he deserves it simply because he comes next.

Posted by: jcallery at 07:51 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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The Nightmare Scenario

So, I get a chain email that goes something like this:

So is it feasible?  Who knows in today's political climate.  I had actually had this thought before, but I don't think that the voters would stand for it.  Plus, the Democrat Party has to get some new blood front and center.  The Clintons aren't going to last forever.

Posted by: jcallery at 06:52 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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